Survey Says

Don't Know Much About...Us I've been fortunate to have the opportunity to travel a fair amount - Europe several times, South America, Canada - and after every trip I've returned thinking its good to be home, but man we sure don't know much about the rest of the world. I remember a trip to Canada a few years ago and engaging in serious conversation with friendly Canadians who seemed to be up on everything happening in the USA from our politics to popular culture. By contrast, most Americans couldn't find Saskatoon with a GPS device let alone name the Canadian Prime Minister - Stephen Harper - or that the national capitol is Ottawa, not Montreal or Toronto. Now it turns out we don't know much about ourselves, either. Newsweek has surveyed 1,000 Americans on the most basic details of our history, government and politics. We flunked. Badly. The questions aren't exactly PhD level, either, but are questions that are asked in the official U.S. citizenship test. Questions like: What happened at the Constitutional Convention? How could 65% of those surveyed not know that the Founders wrote the U.S. Constitution at the Constitutional Convention? Or, how about this. Fully 88% in the survey couldn't name one person who authored the Federalist Papers. Hint: his wife's name was Dolley, as in Madison. Maybe those 65% know her donuts and cakes better. And, don't ask what the Federalist Papers were. I've railed in this space in the past about America's historical ignorance, but 29% not being able to name the current vice president or 73% not know why we "fought" the Cold War. This isn't funny. It is worrying.

Newsweek blames several factors for American ignorance, including a generally complex political system that unlike Europe tends to spread control among local, state and federal governments. I guess this is confusing and there is much to keep track of, but that hardly seems an excuse for the fundamental lack of knowledge exposed in the survey.

The decentralized education system gets some blame. What we teach in Idaho they might not teach in Maryland. Some of the blame should go, I think, to those who have de-emphasized history, social studies and the humanities in favor of science and math. Kids need it all, in big doses.

And there is the income and media reality. A growing percentage of Americans are poor, not of the middle class. Poorer Americans have less access to information and knowledge. In Europe, where a larger share of the population lives in the middle, people are generally better educated and much more knowledgeable about their politics and government.

The mass media is both part of the problem and could offer a slice of the solution, but we mostly have a pure market driven media that features much more American Idol than Meet the Press. It is, after all, difficult to take politics seriously when so much of it is trivialized over the air and on the web.

The Newsweek analysis concludes, and maybe this is the good news, “the problem is ignorance, not stupidity.“ One expert who has studied this American ignorance says, "we suffer from a lack of information rather than a lack of ability.”

The real problem here isn't knowing James Madison authored many of the Federalist Papers, it is not knowing enough - as the current budget debate in Washington, D.C. makes so clear - about our federal government and our political system. It's impossible to assess, for example, what must be done to fix the budget if we have no idea how the government spends and taxes.

Survey after survey says Americans want Congress to cut the budget by reducing foreign aid and by stamping out that old standby waste, fraud and abuse. At the same time they say whatever you do don't touch Social Security or Medicare where the real money gets spent. Too many politicians pander this ignorance and we get the endless debates we now witness in Congress.

Simple fact: Americans need information and real knowledge to make sense of their government and then they must care enough to act on the knowledge. Ignorance isn't a strategy for a great country.

Now...the News

Pew Survey: Internet Grows As News Source The new Pew Research Center report dealing with where Americans turn for their daily news fix shows, not surprisingly, that the Internet's impact is growing and newspapers are declining. Television is also in decline, while radio is essentially flat. Again, no big surprise, young people, in vast numbers, are surfing the net for news, while - as a former TV reporter I love this headline - TV news still dominates among what Pew calls "the less educated." People in the West are more likely than any other part of the country to turn to the Internet for news, but I'm guessing those numbers are skewed by "the left coast" effect of California, Oregon and Washington. Still the trends in where we seek out news are dramatic and show no signs of changing. Interesting to me, cable news and the traditional broadcast networks are both in steady decline as news sources, while local television news seems to be holding its own as a source of information. Older folks, again no big surprise, turn to television and much less to the Internet. What the survey doesn't answer is where on the Internet Americans are turning for information. Are they using the major newspaper and broadcast websites? Or are Internet news consumers turning to specialized sites that cover politics, business, energy or the environment? Or are they looking to sites like the Drudge Report and The Huffington Post, websites that aggregate news with a decided slant on what is featured and how the information is packaged? Or, as I suspect, based on the trend of increasing partisanship and a "point of view" approach on cable television, are Internet consumers seeking out information that already reinforces their political or social views? This much is beyond debate it seems to me: there is no longer any comprehensive place where Americans can turn for a shared sense of what is happening in American politics and culture. Walter Cronkite and David Brinkley once could gather us around the national hearth and we could share a national experience - men landing on the moon - or a national tragedy - the Kennedy assassination. No more. Pew also offers some regular analysis of what type of information Internet consumers seek. In the week between Christmas and the New Year - a pretty quiet news cycle - the top story was the seriously bad weather on the east coast. I've long subscribed to the "more is better" theory about news and information. More sources, more points of view and more delivery systems should make us smarter, more informed and better and more engaged citizens. I hope that instinct is true, but doubt it is. To make it true we must have not just consumers of news and information, but discerning, skeptical and critically thinking consumers. Other recent Pew research suggests that Americans have a 30,000 foot view of the issues and challenges facing the country. We know a few basic facts, but very few details. Americans aren't big on nuance. We know, for example, that the GOP made big gains in Congress, but not what those new members really intend to do, or even that the Republicans won control of the House. We know that BP ran the oil well that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, but no idea about who serves as the British Prime Minister. We know the budget deficit is a big problem, but have no idea where all that money is being spent. And, John Boehner. Whose he? There is clearly a tremendous amount of information out there on the Internet, cable and broadcast television, even in shrinking newspapers, but the jury is out as to whether all that information, in an increasingly complicated and interconnected world, is making us any smarter or better able to understand and engage the world. That, in a modern democracy, seems to me to be a real problem.

Obama's Comeback

Never So High, Nor So Low It was as predictable as a Christmas sale. Make way for the Obama Comeback stories. Immediately after the mid-term "shellacking" of Barack Obama and his party, New York Times White House correspondent Peter Baker breathlessly and instantly analyzed the election under the headline - "In Republican Victories, Tide Turns, Starkly." The President, Baker analyzed, "must find a way to recalibrate with nothing less than his presidency on the line." Wow. What a difference seven weeks makes. A lead story at the Politico website carries the headline: "Obama Rebounding." Reporter Jennifer Epstein expands a tiny uptick in Obama's poll standings - his approval/disapproval now stands evenly split at 48-48 in the latest CNN survey - into the insight that more Americans support the President's policies than any time since mid-2009. Say what? What happened to the guy who couldn't find his groove? What became of the fatally wounded re-election bid? In that November 3 Times piece, former House Republican leader Dick Armey, a voice of the Tea Party, flatly predicted that Obama has "already lost his re-election." What's going on here is that politics sometimes resembles another game - baseball. Every day is a new game and, while every team looks unbeatable through a winning streak and impossible in a slump, seldom are the players ever as good or bad as they appear. The ups get exaggerated and so do the downs. The other phenomenon in plain view is the absolute fascination of the national media with the "comeback narrative." The so called "media elite" from the Times to Time, from Fox News to Politico can't operate without a simple, concise narrative. Every storyline needs, well, a story and there is no better political story than "the comeback." Need more proof? USA Today supplies it with a headline: "Obama Sets Up As Comeback Kid." Seven weeks is a lifetime in politics, particularly in a political environment as volatile as ours; an environment influenced heavily, it must be noted, by relentless and often misleading coverage of the latest poll numbers. Here's a thought. Rather than sitting around the Beltway cracker barrel, how about some political reporters go out into the country and talk to voters? They just might learn something. A few things are obvious, even if they don't fit neatly into the political narrative of the moment. The President has had a good lame duck session, he did recalibrate his stand on extending the Bush tax cuts and, as yet, the country sees no serious challenger to him in 2012. Meanwhile, by some accounts, Obama is quietly remaking his White House staff for the run up to his re-election and positioning himself as a reasonable, mid-ground alternative to the current faces of the GOP - Mitch McConnell and John Boehner. Also obvious, Obama is a good politician who displays the ability to grow in office. By the same token, he is not as good at the political game as his 2008 election made him look, but he is also not as bad as the recent mid-terms made him look. For Obama, like all politicians, the highs are always lower than they seem and the lows are always higher. In truth, as Michael Cooper astutely pointed out in the Times in the wake of the mid-terms, a good deal of political "analysis" is not just spin, it is mythology. But, political time and myth will march on and the national media will soon need to invent new narratives. In a few weeks, Newt and Mitt, Sarah and Haley will be showing up in places like Manchester and Waterloo and we can read and contemplate the unfolding of the endless presidential campaign. It will, no doubt, be the most important election in our lifetimes. You heard it here first. All this reminds me - and reminded Michael Cooper after the mid-terms - of the late Polish philosopher and political thinker, Leszek Kolakowski. Once a hard-headed Stalinist, Kolakowski came to see the Communism of his youth as a fraud and he eventually became a leading intellectual of the Solidarity movement in his native land. He won a MacArthur genius award and his work was celebrated by, among others, the Library of Congress. Kolakowski promulgated what he called the "Law of Infinite Cornucopia," which holds that for any doctrine one chooses to embrace there is never a shortage of arguments to support that view. So, welcome to the remarkable Obama comeback or, if you prefer, wait for "proof" that it never happened.

Whad'Ya Know

Not Much Apparently The Pew Research Center is out with a new quiz probing just what we know about current issues and politics. Most folks who have taken the quiz - the questions range who the Senate Majority Leader is to which country holds most of the debt that the United States has piled up - could answer less than half of the questions correctly. Take the quick, 12 question quiz and see how you stack up. Frankly, if you read a daily newspaper, listen to NPR, watch CNN, FOX of MSNBC, or check a major newspaper blog once in a while you should ace the quiz. However, based upon Pew's findings, most folks are living in an basic information black hole. Fewer than half knew that U.S. troops have sustained more causalities in Afghanistan over the last year than in Iraq. Only 26% knew that it takes 60 votes in the Senate to end a filibuster. Interestingly, the question most frequently answered correctly - 59% of the time - was the nation that holds the most U.S. debt. (Hint - it's not Belgium.) I've long been on my soapbox with concern that education in basic history and what we used to call civics - how the government works, that we have three branches, that Senators operate under different rules that Congressman, etc. - has nearly gone the way of the dodo. This Pew quiz does not prompt me to revise that opinion. With more and more sources of news and information, Americans seem less and less informed about the "facts" underlying what they tell pollsters are their clear concerns about the direction of the country. Thomas Jefferson wrote to a friend in 1789: "Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government." By contrast, when the people don't even know the basics about how their government operates and who makes the decisions, a strong, enduring democracy is, well, not necessarily strong or enduring.

Fussing Over Polls

What to Make Of Early Polls A new Rasmussen poll out last week, not surprisingly, shows Idaho Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter with a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger and first-time candidate Keith Allred. Typically, the two camps had different takes on the new numbers and in a curious way, I think, both are probably right. The governor's camp takes heart that he is ahead, perhaps quite comfortably. The poll has the race at 60-28. Allred's campaign has a point that a horse race poll at this stage, particularly in light of all the media attention Otter has received over the last two weeks, may tell us a good deal less than meets the eye. [Rasmussen's results and methodology have its detractors - most from the liberal side - and I'll look at that and offer other thoughts on polling tomorrow.] Still, last week's Rasmussen poll does help cement the developing storyline that Otter is the prohibitive favorite. There is a lot of time until November, but that perception is starting to set. The poll, among other things, should be a wake up call to the Democratic campaign. In would appear that the buzz Allred created with his announcement in December was temporary and this race now has many of the makings of settling into the same kind of contest Idaho Democrats have lost every four years since 1994. For example, if the Rasmussen numbers are taken at face value, Allred - a one-time independent turned Democrat - has barely begun to solidify the puny Idaho Democratic base that I think can reasonably be calculated at plus or minus 30%. The State of the Race In any poll right now Otter, a long-time fixture in Idaho politics with a very high name ID, will score well. He's been in the news constantly for the last few weeks, shutting down the legislature and suing the feds over health insurance reform. In an Idaho that we instinctively know is very wary of the recently passed reform legislation, anyone pushing back against that legislation is bound to look pretty good. Legislative Republicans and the governor certainly understand that dynamic and have attempted to ride the wave. Even as many commentators predict failure for the lawsuit strategy, unless Republicans overplay their hand, even in defeat, the lawsuit may prove to be good politics in Idaho. Additionally, the high profile critique of what has been happening in Washington has helped Otter shore up his own standing within the fractious Idaho Republican Party. The governor will dominate statewide news again this week with an announcement tour that is certain to garner much local media attention. The Rasmussen poll also highlights the huge challenge facing Allred. He not only needs to introduce himself to hundreds of thousands of Idahoans, he needs to present a compelling story for why he, in a year strongly tending in the direction of Republicans, deserves their votes. Allred may live to regret not maintaining a higher profile during the contentious legislative session just ended. He might have been able to begin to more fully sketch out the rationale for his candidacy in the midst of all the attention the public and media were lavishing on budget cuts, particularly to education, and bashing the feds. This, after all, is the legislature that found plenty of time to debate meaningless memorials to Congress, but couldn't get around to banning texting while driving. The governor concluded the session by praising the lawmakers. There is the making of a message in there somewhere. So, taken all together the Rasmussen poll - without too much focus on the specific numbers - is probably a reasonable snap shot of where the race stands today. Otter - well known with a big lead and riding a popular wave. Allred - yet to define himself or his issues and likely having squandered a defining place on the stage during the recent legislative session. Tomorrow...Reading the Polls