What Does it Portend for Idaho Next Week?
The political establishment took it on the chin in yesterday's primaries in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas.
Voters said no to long time incumbents and party-endorsed favorites in both parties and forced Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a runoff that she might well lose.
Any lessons for Idaho? Maybe.
The highest profile race next week in Idaho is the GOP battle in the First Congressional district for the chance to take on first-term incumbent Walt Minnick. By any measure, the establishment candidate is Vaughn Ward who hopes to regain his perceived front runner momentum with a last week visit from once and future candidate Sarah Palin. Ward is trying to get up off the canvas after being downed by a truly amazing series of gaffes; the most amazing series I've seen in watching 35 years of Idaho politics.
Still, Ward has a long list of establishment endorsements, including Dirk Kempthorne, Phil Batt and Idaho First Lady Lori Otter. He will outspend his primary opponent Raul Labrador in the range of 4-1. National Republicans have tagged him as the best hope against the Blue Dog Minnick. Yet, all that advantage - considering the political background from Tuesday's primary - may not help Ward all that much this year.
Things to watch in the last week:
- Can Ward avoid another damaging front page story in the last week? The hits the first time candidate have taken have been fierce, but we'll see if they have been fatal. They range from his wife's work for mortgage giant Fannie Mae, while he's attacking the kind of bank bailouts that saved Fannie Mae. Ward is an Iraq war veteran who has had the Marine Corps chastise him for the way he has presented himself in uniform. He failed to pay taxes on property he owns or properly file a required disclosure form. Spokesman-Review reporter Betsy Russell twice caught his campaign plagiarizing other candidate's positions on his website. That last offense caused Ward to dismiss his campaign manager. As I said, unprecedented incoming fire. Update: The Statesman's Dan Popkey has a story today that won't help Ward's prmary end game. While touting his Marine credentials, Ward - despite promises to do so - hasn't released records about this service.
- Will Ward's money advantage help him prevail? While the use of a borrowed pickup truck for his first campaign TV spot got Ward some unwelcome attention, the fact remains that he's been up on TV and Labrador hasn't. It appears both campaigns, based on the disclosure reports, are running on empty, but many First District voters likely know what they know about the race from seeing a Ward TV spot.
- Will the sustained negative media coverage of Ward's mistakes offset his money and endorsements? Or, put another way - have folks been reading the papers? What is often called "earned media" was once considered absolutely critical to a candidate's ability to to put across his message. But with generally less coverage of politics by the Idaho media, more specialized attention by bloggers and widespread use of social media and the web, whose to say the barrage of negative coverage of Ward has had as much impact on the voting public as it has, for example, on the state's political elite who have generally watched his campaign with jaws dropped.
- Does Palin's visit help? Minnick's campaign poised the question of why she would be campaigning for Ward when he didn't vote for the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008, another of his gaffes? Ward managed the McCain campaign in Nevada, but didn't solve the riddle of getting his hands on an absentee ballot so he could vote. Palin will turn out a crowd, but for whom - Ward or the Wonder from Wasilla?
- Finally, who shows up to vote next Tuesday? Idaho primaries typically produce the most faithful, most committed voters. Does either campaign have a voter turnout operation? And ultimately will Idaho voters follow the money and big name endorsements, or will they, like in Pennsylvania and Kentucky senate primaries, reject the establishment candidate?
Meanwhile, Minnick continues to pull in his own conservative endorsements and fatten his campaign account.
No predictions here. I'll just continue to watch with fascination. It's almost as good as a Red Sox-Yankees game.
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